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Wildfire Risk and Fuel Treatment Analysis Workshop

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The Wildfire Risk and Fuel Treatment Analysis Workshop was organized to build capacity in conducting wildfire risk assessments using the best tools and science available to inform fire and fuels management decisions. The workshop introduced risk framework concepts, steps, and recent applications from project to national scales to help forests and regional staff support local wildfire risk assessments. The workshop also gathered feedback from participants on needs for future wildfire risk assessments at all levels of the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Services (USDA FS).

The workshop was organized by USDA FS Washington Office Fire and Aviation Management (WO-FAM) Fuels and Fire Ecology group, with support from Rocky Mountain Research Station, Pyrologix LLC, USDA Pacific Northwest Research Station Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC), TEAMS enterprise unit, and FS Regions 1 and 5.

The workshop was attended by 38 participants. An additional 50+ people viewed a simulcast facilitated by the USFS Digital Visions enterprise unit. Participants represented all Forest Service Regions and specialize in fuels and fire planning, resource management, fire behavior analysis, and GIS; and representatives from Department of Interior Office of Wildland Fire and USDA Office of Inspector General.

The workshop builds on the methods outlined in the Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework for Land and Resource Management publication. This web page includes webcasts, handouts, and a risk assessment bibliography list. 


Workshop Agenda and Webcasts 


 Workshop Introduction Webcast (58 minutes) 

  • Washington Office Fire and Aviation Management (FAM) Expectations and Goals (0-6:00) (Elizabeth Reinhardt, USFS WO-FAM)
  • Two-way Learning (6:00-15:25) (Laurie Kurth, USFS WO-FAM)
  • How the Risk Assessment Fits into the Agency Mission (15:25-58:21) (Dave Calkin, USFS RMRS & Frankie Romero, UFSF WO-FAM)

Background to Wildfire Risk Analyses Webcast 1 (66 minutes) 


Background to Wildfire Risk Analyses Webcast 2 (55 minutes) 

  • Outlining the Six Main Steps (0-55:21) (Matt Thompson, USFS RMRS)

Core Elements and Methods Key to Risk and Fuel Treatment Planning and Analysis Webcast 1 (1 hour 46 minutes) 

  • Overview of the Steps (0-2:23) (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
  • Wildfire Simulation: Philosophy on and Reason for Fire Modeling & Introduction to Burn Probability Modeling (2:23-15:32) (Karen Short, USFS RMRS)
  • FSim Introduction, Components, & Differences between Static FlamMap Run and Stochastic Simulation (15:32-1:03:21) (Karen Short, USFS RMRS)
  • Stochastic Wildfire Simulation: Systems and Consideration (1:03:21-1:45:55) (Don Helmbrecht, USFS TEAMS)

Core Elements and Methods Key to Risk and Fuel Treatment Planning and Analysis Webcast 2 (1 hour 36 minutes) 

  • Introduction: Focus on the Process (0-6:49) (Phil Bowden, USFS R5 FAM)
  • Characterizing Highly Valued Resources & Assets (HVRAs) (6:49-46:50) (Phil Bowden, USFS R5 FAM)
  • Exposure Analysis (46:50-1:00:12) (Nicole Vaillant, USFS PNW)
  • Effects Analysis (1:00:12-1:35:57) (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
    Handout - Effects Analysis

Risk Calculation Tools Webcast (1 hour 13 minutes) 


Applications of the Risk Analyses: National, Regional, and Forest Case Studies Webcast (3 hours 15 minutes) 


 Applications of the Risk Analyses: Forest and Project Case Studies Webcast (3 hours 26 minutes) 

  • Case Study: CFLR Projects Fuel Treatment Planning & R-CAT (2:40:40-3:26:10) (Keith Stockmann, USFS R1)

 Time, Resources, and Data Demands Webcast (33 minutes) 


 Additional Resources