This presentation by Andy Hansen, Ecology Department, Montana State University, assesses components of vulnerability of tree species and biome types to projected future climate within the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GNLCC) in the US Northern Rockies and the ecosystems surrounding Glacier and Yellowstone/Grand Teton National Parks.

Researchers-

• drew on results from five published studies and analyzed current and projected future climate suitability for 11 tree species and 8 biome types under two IPCC emissions scenarios
• assessed components of vulnerability based on four metrics of current and projected future climate suitability
• developed habitat suitability models for dominant tree species and community types across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) based on climate, water balance, soil and topographic predictors and projected habitat suitability to 2100 under IPCC MMIP5 climate scenarios

Results for biome types indicated largely a shift from climates suitable for alpine and subalpine conifer to climates suitable for desert scrub and grassland types. The rankings of tree species vulnerability were similar among studies, scenarios, and geographic areas and indicated highest vulnerability for Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana). Analyses within GYE found that decreasing spring snowpack and increasing late-season soil moisture deficit will decrease suitable habitat area for seven mountain forest species while increasing suitable area for sagebrush and juniper communities.