Key message: We have explored the impacts of forest thinning on wildland fire behavior using a process based model. Simulating different degrees of thinning, we found out that forest thinning should be conducted cautiously as there could be a wide range of outcomes depending upon the post-thinning states of fuel availability, fuel connectivity, fuel moisture and micrometeorological features such as wind speed. Context: There are conflicting reports in the literature regarding the effectiveness of forest thinning. Some studies have found that thinning reduces fire severity, while some studies have found that thinning might lead to enhanced fire severity.

Aims: Our goal was to evaluate if both of these outcomes are possible post thinning operations and what are the limiting conditions for post thinning fire behavior. Methods: We used a process based model to simulate different degrees of thinning systematically, under two different conditions, where the canopy fuel moisture was unchanged and when the canopy fuel moisture was also depleted post thinning. Both of these scenarios are reported in the literature.

Results: We found out that a low degree of thinning can indeed increase fire intensity, especially if the canopy fuel moisture is low. A high degree of thinning was effective in reducing fire intensity. However, thinning also increased rate of spread under some conditions. Interestingly, both intensity and rate of spread were dependent on the competing effects of increased wind speed, fuel loading and canopy fuel moisture.

Conclusion: We were able to find the limits of fire behavior post thinning and actual fire behavior is likely to be somewhere in the middle of the theoretical extremes explored in this work. The actual fire behavior post thinning should depend on the site specific conditions which would determine the outcome of the interplay among the aforementioned conditions. The work also highlights that policymakers should be careful about fine scale canopy architectural attributes and micrometeorological aspects when planning fuel treatment operations.