Total post-fire tree seedling establishment (all species combined) declined sharply with greater post-fire drought severity and with greater distance to seed sources (i.e. the interior of burn patches). Effects varied among key species groups. For conifers that dominate present-day subalpine forests (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa), post-fire seedling establishment declined sharply with both factors. One exception was serotinous Pinus contorta, which did not vary with either factor. For montane species expected to move upslope under future climate change (Larix occidentalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Populus tremuloides) and upper treeline species (Pinus albicaulis), establishment was unrelated to either factor. Greater post-fire tree seedling establishment on cooler/wetter aspects suggested local topographic refugia during post-fire droughts.