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Author(s):
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Topic(s):
Fire & Climate
Smoke & Populations
Smoke Emissions
Smoke Emissions and Inventory

NRFSN number: 27202
Record updated:

Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

Citation

Park CY, Takahashi K, Fujimori S, Jansakoo T, Burton C, Huang H, Kou-Giesbrecht S, Reyer CPO, Mengel M, Burke E, Li F, Hantson S, Takakura J, Lee DK, and Hasegawa T. 2024. Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change. Nature Climate Change Volume 14: 1193–1200. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1

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