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In 2022, the US Forest Service launched an ambitious 10-year strategy to address the escalating wildfire danger in the USA. “Confronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America’s Forests” includes a 10-year plan to substantially increase the scale of forest health and risk reduction fuel treatments over the next decade. The plan expands and prioritizes treatments on 20 million acres on National Forest System lands, and 30 million acres of other federal, state, tribal, and private lands, targeting lands where wildfire ignitions will potentially impact communities. In this talk, we describe the core science components supporting the treatment plan, and its evolution through interactions between our research team and Forest Service leadership. We highlight key science advancements and contributions, including: (1) the development of a multiscale planning framework based on wildfire risk transmission to communities that recognizes the scale of wildfire risk; (2) scenario planning models that optimized and scheduled treatments over the first 20 years of the plan and re-treatments for an additional 10 years; (3) methods to incorporate the future effect of wildfire during plan implementation, i.e. “planning risk”; (4) an online geospatial registry to track progress; and (5) use of extreme event assessments rather than average risk estimates to inform local planning. We describe how these tools and methods could be used in other fire-prone regions to build and test national scale fuel management strategies and guide new policy initiatives in response to recent trends in wildfire losses.

Presented at the Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk, Sardinia, Italy, 3–6 May 2022.

This event is part of a series:

Fire Lab Seminar Series

The Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory has been hosting an annual seminar series since 1998. Hour-long seminars are presented by Fire Lab employees and other researchers from throughout the world. Seminars cover current research and management about the natural world from a broad range of disciplines, but most seminars usually have a wildland fire theme. The Fire Lab Seminar Series provides a platform for researchers and managers to present their work in an environment that encourages critical thought, the free exchange of ideas, and knowledge discovery. For more information, visit the Fire Lab Seminar Series page.

Event Details

Jan 19 2023, 11am - 12pm
Virtual Event
Presenter(s): Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day

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