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Albert R. Stage
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Fire Behavior
Fire Prediction
Simulation Modeling
Montane wet mixed-conifer forest, Montane dry mixed-conifer forest, Ponderosa pine woodland/savanna

NRFSN number: 11011
FRAMES RCS number: 3047
Record updated:

While the prospect of a static climate is no longer tenable, the direction of change for particular localities is not yet clear. Modelling vulnerability of silvicultural options to various scenarios of climate change requires a modelling system that can represent major processes affected by climatic variability. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), through its Keywords and Event Monitor commands modifying the underlying model, can be used for such analyses. In this report, we document an FVS-based analysis of four scenarios of climate change: warmer-dryer, warmer-wetter, cooler-dryer, and cooler-wetter. Regeneration rates and species composition of regeneration and rates of mortality and accretion are expected to respond differently under the four scenarios. Development of forest stands in the example locales (northwestern Montana and central Washington) is strongly influenced by fire, and conversely, fire behavior is influenced by stand structure. We describe how analyses illustrating the interplay of these hypotheses were formulated using FVS and its Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE). Our hypotheses of how processes might change in response to varying climate are qualitatively consistent with our understanding of the ecosystem represented. Furthermore, the present range of weather variability is sufficient to test each of the componenthypotheses independently by monitoring how their rates change in response to weather variation.


Stage, Albert R. 2002. Using FVS and its fire and fuels extension in the context of uncertain climate. In: FVS Proceedings. Proceedings RMRS-P-25. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 104-107.